NFL playoff picture: How Dolphins, Colts outlooks improve in best-case Week 15 results for AFC wild-card race

In the joyous aftermath of the Miami Dolphins‘ 32-26 overtime victory over the New York Jets on Sunday, Miami defensive back and special teamer Siran Neal looked into a camera and smiled.

“That’s how you get a dub!” he said. “Keep it rolling! Keep it rolling!”

Indeed, the Dolphins are trending in the right direction. After starting the season 2-6, Miami (6-7) has now won four of its last five games and sits in second place in the AFC East.

But Neal and the Dolphins will need to keep things rolling if they hope to make the playoffs. Miami and Indianapolis (also 6-7) are the two teams sitting just outside the top seven in the AFC postseason race. The Colts, who beat the Dolphins earlier this year, occupy the eighth spot in the conference, while Miami is ninth. Both teams are two games behind the Ravens (8-5), who own the third and final wild card spot in the AFC.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, Indianapolis enters Week 15 with just a 15.6% chance of making the playoffs. Miami’s odds are even worse, at 11.4%.

Both teams face near must-win games this week. The Colts play at Denver (8-5) and are 4-point underdogs, while the Dolphins face the Texans (8-5) in Houston and are 3-point underdogs.

However, there are scenarios this weekend in which Indianapolis and Miami could significantly improve their playoff hopes. The Colts’ best-case scenario is the following: Colts win, Dolphins lose and Chargers lose to the Buccaneers. (L.A. is a 3-point favorite at home.) If those outcomes occur, Indianapolis’ playoff percentage improves from 15.6% to 50.6%.

Miami’s best-case scenario is the following: Dolphins win, Broncos lose and Chargers lose. In that case, Miami’s playoff percentage jumps from 11.4% to 30.0%.

“Miami needs to go 3-1 at the least to make the playoffs,” says Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model.

As for the Colts’ Week 15 game against the Broncos, the SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in more than 60% of simulations. It is the only game with an A-grade spread pick based on model simulations for Week 15. You can find that top-tier Week 15 NFL pick at SportsLine.